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The Indian benchmark indices closed on a positive note — thanks to the dovish stand taken by RBI and the prediction of a normal monsoon in the months to come.
Going ahead, there was a sharp fall in the US markets due to trade war tensions and weak non-farm pay roll data. The Indian markets might react to it on Monday morning. The first quarter of the year hence, has become a choppy session that hit record highs in January and crashing in February and March. If the trade war continues for an indefinite time, it will have far reaching consequences for the global economy and the stock markets.
The market movement will be based on the global response to the on-going trade war and of course domestic data release like — IIP data for February, consumer price inflation for March and the Q4 earnings numbers put out by the companies.
Overall the market is volatile and investors may tread with caution. Backed by positive cues from around the world , the Indian benchmark indices closed the week with a gain of 1. The on-going talks to ease the trade war between US and China eased the pressure around the globe and Indian and Asian markets responded accordingly.
Going ahead, the first trading week of the new financial year unfolds and investors should keep watching the global trends which were driving the market sentiments for a while now.
The March month auto sales numbers and the rupee and crude oil price movement are also important. Although the indices reacted positively last week , the short term trend still remains down. Whats important to watch is whether the indices can break the key resistance conclusively. The key resistance points or the Nifty and the Sensex are poised at 10, and 33, These are key hurdles and as long as the indices trade below these levels , it would be difficult to judge whether there is a confirmed uptrend or not.
As expected, the markets were influenced by global cues last week. The week that passed by witnessed the global markets skidding on the prospects of a trade war. Another factor that contributed to the downfall of the markets was the resultant rise in crude oil and gold prices. It is to be remembered that both the Nifty and the Sensex had registered a 4.
Going ahead, the short term trend continues to be down. The Nifty closed below 10, for the first time since last October and it has breached the day moving average which was poised at 10, The Sensex too, has breached all the immediate support levels including the day DMA.
It would be unrealistic to expect any strong positive movement this week considering that the March derivatives expiry is coming up. A further fall in the indices will reinforce the downtrend and bearish sentiments will become more and more prominent. The equity markets will be shut down on Thursday and Friday on account of Mahavir jayanthi and Good Friday. Going ahead, the US fed meeting is the big event coming up. Experts say that a rate hike is possible.
The crude oil price movement is also important to watch. As far as the Nifty is concerned, it is hovering just above the day moving average at 10, Multiple closing below the moving average can drag the index down to 9,, levels in no time.
So traders need to be extra cautious in taking positions. For the week ahead, we expect the Sensex to trade in a range of 32,, and Nifty in a range of — A bullish momentum is hard to come in the present scenario.
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